We recently highlighted Capstone Turbine (Symbol: CPST) when it was trading around $0.90 with this post Capstone Turbine taking a look as a speculative play that could really sky rocket to $1.30 or higher in the near term. Well yesterday it did just that on some very impressive volume.
The move was driven by news that the company received new orders out of Mexico (read full story here) and this, along with a sizeable short interest, drove shares higher.
If you were lucky enough to pick up some cheap stock around the time of our post then you should be seeing gains of approximately 40%, so its time to book some profits depending on your risk tolerance. The stock is looking more and more promising for the long term so you may want to consider holding a portion to see if you can squeeze more performance out of the upward momentum but again, this is according to your risk tolerance. CPST can easily retrace back to $1 but if so, look to pick up some more cheap stock for a longer haul.
We would be interested to hear what prices anyone picked up shares and how you are trading out of them. As mentioned we own some and sold only 10% or so of our holdings as we have a longer term outlook. But then again, no one ever went broke taking profits.
HAPPY TRADING!
Must reads...
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
The Next Bull Market - Melissa Frances and the English woman have got the goods
There is a bull market and I promise to find it for you somewhere.
Well CNBC its right in front of your reporters eyes…actually it is ON their eyes. The next bull market must be in eye makeup and hair coloring. Between Melissa Frances and the woman from England (wow is she harsh on the eyes…literally and figuratively!) they must have cornered the market on black eye makeup and blond hair coloring.
Apparently the old saying of “it right in front of your eyes” holds true on CNBC in more ways than one.
Well CNBC its right in front of your reporters eyes…actually it is ON their eyes. The next bull market must be in eye makeup and hair coloring. Between Melissa Frances and the woman from England (wow is she harsh on the eyes…literally and figuratively!) they must have cornered the market on black eye makeup and blond hair coloring.
Apparently the old saying of “it right in front of your eyes” holds true on CNBC in more ways than one.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
SPX Broke out - Soon will be time to Back $ Fill...BEEEP...BEEEP...BEEEP!
There are plenty of non-believers out there when it comes to the equity market rally. And selectively, opportunistically, we have been non-believers also, just as prudent traders and technicians should be. But to put on blinders and randomly say we have gone too far too fast (think clueless NYSE floor brokers like Peter Costa, or more clueless and nonsensical TV reporters like Dennis Kneale, Bob Pisani, and...oh the list is too long for this post) and profess that the equity market must pull back is the equivalent of occupational suicide.
Let us state one thing that will guide us through the rest of the year...BE CONTRARIAN AND THROW OUT THE OBVIOUS! When everyone is saying the S&P is going down, think about how you can capitalize on a move to the upside. When everyone around the same time is talking about how China has further to rally, think about how you are going to capitalize on a possible move down. The crowded trade will be the wrong trade, period. No further examples needed here - you should get the idea.
Having said that, now think about what you are going to do next to make money in the equity market. This past week, as the S&P again rallied in the face of reason, more people were drawn to the "overbought" camp. And there may be good reason to be in that camp. But you cant argue with the technical breakout of the SPX.
So here is a short term forecast: Over the past 2 weeks or so the erratic S&P range has been approximately 975 - 1010. But on Friday the S&P broke out over this range and started its next leg higher. So expect some backing & filling soon. That BEEEP BEEEP BEEEP sound that you will be hearing when you see the light volume pullbacks will be the massive earth movers run by Fidelity, Vanguard, etc filling up their portfolios. And shortly thereafter we will see the eventual continuation of this up leg with the S&P approaching 1050ish before the much anticipated Labor Day weekend.
Now that you have a game plan its time to put it to use.
HAPPY TRADING!
Let us state one thing that will guide us through the rest of the year...BE CONTRARIAN AND THROW OUT THE OBVIOUS! When everyone is saying the S&P is going down, think about how you can capitalize on a move to the upside. When everyone around the same time is talking about how China has further to rally, think about how you are going to capitalize on a possible move down. The crowded trade will be the wrong trade, period. No further examples needed here - you should get the idea.
Having said that, now think about what you are going to do next to make money in the equity market. This past week, as the S&P again rallied in the face of reason, more people were drawn to the "overbought" camp. And there may be good reason to be in that camp. But you cant argue with the technical breakout of the SPX.
So here is a short term forecast: Over the past 2 weeks or so the erratic S&P range has been approximately 975 - 1010. But on Friday the S&P broke out over this range and started its next leg higher. So expect some backing & filling soon. That BEEEP BEEEP BEEEP sound that you will be hearing when you see the light volume pullbacks will be the massive earth movers run by Fidelity, Vanguard, etc filling up their portfolios. And shortly thereafter we will see the eventual continuation of this up leg with the S&P approaching 1050ish before the much anticipated Labor Day weekend.
Now that you have a game plan its time to put it to use.
HAPPY TRADING!
Friday, August 14, 2009
So Many Indicators, So Little Time
Since everyone is a technician these days it seems no matter where you turn its talk of a "double top"..."cup and saucer"..."Fibonacci level"..."trendline"...etc. Whether its a NYSE floor broker whos talking about a large "double top" on his charts (by the way, when was the last time a floor broker took a look at a chart between delivering buy and sell orders to the specialist?)or the teleprompter readers at CNBC talking about Fibonacci retracement levels (Leonardo - that was the famous mathematicians first name by the way - must be turning over in his grave) once again confirming their cluelessness about the machinations of the stock markets, technical analysis is all the rage. Well, we say let them continue on their merry and clueless way because it makes the day go by more easily (especially slow summer Fridays) when you can poke fun at someone who thinks they have a clue.
Anyway, staying away from any technical levels in this post (because lets be honest, almost any technical indicators have been totally demolished as of late on this vacuum to the upside - especially in financials) let us just say that pullbacks must continue to be bought. It seems like an easy enough thing to say but until the market proves everyone wrong (and eventually it will) you just have to continue doing what works. And that is buying the dips.
Take for example BAC the past week. The stock rallied early in the week, ran into some trouble (yes it was technical trouble in the form of at least 2 indicators we follow, DeMark TD Sequential and MACD, but as we said above we are staying away from technicals in this post) and quickly retested the low $15's. Then John Paulsons reported holdings of the latest period showed he bought 167mm shares of BAC and immediately it was "game on" or in this case "RALLY ON". As most of you know BAC closed out the week over $17.
And this all happened in the face of what EVERYONE is now talking about...the market must pull back. And who are we to disagree with the extended technical posture (oh no, not another mention of technicals) of stocks such as DD, AA, DOW, MCD, JCP - shall we go on? Well when everyone wants/expects the same thing, by now you have to know the opposite usually happens. For no other reason other than IT CAN.
Enjoy the weekend and hold onto your hats next week. Expiration should provide some rollercoaster action.
HAPPY TRADING!
Anyway, staying away from any technical levels in this post (because lets be honest, almost any technical indicators have been totally demolished as of late on this vacuum to the upside - especially in financials) let us just say that pullbacks must continue to be bought. It seems like an easy enough thing to say but until the market proves everyone wrong (and eventually it will) you just have to continue doing what works. And that is buying the dips.
Take for example BAC the past week. The stock rallied early in the week, ran into some trouble (yes it was technical trouble in the form of at least 2 indicators we follow, DeMark TD Sequential and MACD, but as we said above we are staying away from technicals in this post) and quickly retested the low $15's. Then John Paulsons reported holdings of the latest period showed he bought 167mm shares of BAC and immediately it was "game on" or in this case "RALLY ON". As most of you know BAC closed out the week over $17.
And this all happened in the face of what EVERYONE is now talking about...the market must pull back. And who are we to disagree with the extended technical posture (oh no, not another mention of technicals) of stocks such as DD, AA, DOW, MCD, JCP - shall we go on? Well when everyone wants/expects the same thing, by now you have to know the opposite usually happens. For no other reason other than IT CAN.
Enjoy the weekend and hold onto your hats next week. Expiration should provide some rollercoaster action.
HAPPY TRADING!
Thursday, August 06, 2009
FIG on the move
Recently we highlighted FIG (on July 29th with this post) as a stock that has the potential to make a significant move to the upside, and the stock is not disappointing. Like its closest competitor BX, the stock has been galloping higher since mentioned on the pages of this Technical Insights Blog and is again much higher this morning (pre opening).
Above all 3 of its major moving averages with no resistance in sight its hard to call a spot to sell (unlike the CNX short idea where we suggested covering around the 100 day moving average) so take profits when you can and according to your risk tolerance.
HAPPY TRADING!
Above all 3 of its major moving averages with no resistance in sight its hard to call a spot to sell (unlike the CNX short idea where we suggested covering around the 100 day moving average) so take profits when you can and according to your risk tolerance.
HAPPY TRADING!
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
CNX coming in hard
CNX (a short idea highlighted here very recently) is down +5% today so its time to start thinking about locking in some profits. As the first day sharply down it may have more to fall so cover based on your risk tolerance. After all, no one ever went broke banking gains...
HAPPY TRADING!
HAPPY TRADING!
FIG looks poised for a run
Fortress Investment Group has had its share of problems since going public. Essentially the stock has been on one long, extended slippery slope that just seems to be stabilizing now.
This idea should make a good short term trade and actually may be a decent long term trade as well depending on the severity and scope of the next leg lower (and yes there will be another big leg lower).
What we can see from the chart below is that each time the MACD (in the lower chart) of FIG crosses over the flat line as represented by the circled areas, AND the stock recently moved over one of its major moving averages, the stock makes a very nice run in the following week or 2. We believe we are again at such a point and expect FIG to move sharply higher in the short term. (Full disclosure: As with CPST we already own this stock at lower prices and would look to add here to take advantage of the pending move).
HAPPY TRADING!
This idea should make a good short term trade and actually may be a decent long term trade as well depending on the severity and scope of the next leg lower (and yes there will be another big leg lower).
What we can see from the chart below is that each time the MACD (in the lower chart) of FIG crosses over the flat line as represented by the circled areas, AND the stock recently moved over one of its major moving averages, the stock makes a very nice run in the following week or 2. We believe we are again at such a point and expect FIG to move sharply higher in the short term. (Full disclosure: As with CPST we already own this stock at lower prices and would look to add here to take advantage of the pending move).
HAPPY TRADING!
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Matterhorn Asset Management has something to say...
This is some serious stuff, and could happen on some degree. Please read here and share freely.
CNX - setting up on the short side
This chart of CNX is nearly textbook. The stock tanked about 5 days ago on heavy volume, then rallied over the past 4 days on declining volume. This sets up CNX nicely as either a short, or for someone lucky enough to catch the recent low, a nice exit point.
Look for the 100 day moving average area as a good place to either cover all or start covering (depending on your risk tolerance).
Short and sweet...they should all set up this nicely.
HAPPY TRADING!
Look for the 100 day moving average area as a good place to either cover all or start covering (depending on your risk tolerance).
Short and sweet...they should all set up this nicely.
HAPPY TRADING!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Capstone Turbine (Symbol: CPST) - taking a look
Taking a deep look at this micro cap name something very interesting appeared on our radar...this puppy named Capstone Turbine (Symbol: CPST) trades on a 2 year cycle.
What the heck does that mean?
Well if you take a look at the chart you can see that since earlier this decade, on a few occasions, the stock seems to find some magic potion and rally 50% or more over the course of a month or longer. Actually, high volume price rallies over the 200 day moving average (either followed by a consolidative move back to the 200 day moving average or not) get this stock moving considerably higher.
We are not exactly sure why (or WHO, if you believe in conspiracy theory) but if there is a profitable trend that can be uncovered then we like to take advantage of it (and we have as this is a large position of ours).
Where can CPST go in the future. Well as a sub $1 stock it can certainly go to zero...end of fairy tale story. But it can also rally sharply back to or close to the recent highs near $1.30 (which would be an approximate 45% return) and if it can really get its juices flowing (there is actually a good size short position in this one and, as we know from the recent broad market rally, shorts can easily add rocket fuel to the fire) the stock could possibly make a move over $1.50.
A purely speculative and volatile play but one worthy of putting on your radar.
HAPPY TRADING!
What the heck does that mean?
Well if you take a look at the chart you can see that since earlier this decade, on a few occasions, the stock seems to find some magic potion and rally 50% or more over the course of a month or longer. Actually, high volume price rallies over the 200 day moving average (either followed by a consolidative move back to the 200 day moving average or not) get this stock moving considerably higher.
We are not exactly sure why (or WHO, if you believe in conspiracy theory) but if there is a profitable trend that can be uncovered then we like to take advantage of it (and we have as this is a large position of ours).
Where can CPST go in the future. Well as a sub $1 stock it can certainly go to zero...end of fairy tale story. But it can also rally sharply back to or close to the recent highs near $1.30 (which would be an approximate 45% return) and if it can really get its juices flowing (there is actually a good size short position in this one and, as we know from the recent broad market rally, shorts can easily add rocket fuel to the fire) the stock could possibly make a move over $1.50.
A purely speculative and volatile play but one worthy of putting on your radar.
HAPPY TRADING!
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
CNBC: more irresponsible reporting along with the NYSE
So here's a question for you...How much of a conflict of interest do you think it is for a NYSE floor broker (Steve Grasso of floor broker operation Stuart Frankel) appear on CNBC to give his opinion about specific stocks?
If you said a HUGE conflict then you are correct sir - and here is your prize behind curtain number 3...a (supposedly unbiased) stock pick, just for you, with a side order of HUGE CONFLICT OF INTEREST! Good luck on that one.
Maybe its just us. But it shouldnt be - we should ALL care. Apparently CNBC is either too clueless or too arrogant to care.
OK here is a fictious scenario to get our point across...
Melissa Lee asks the question to Steve Grasso; "So Steve, what do you think of IBM here?"
Steves response; "Well Melissa I think its running into some resistance and I am seeing smart hedge funds exiting the name, so we should see some constructive pullback"
(It is not hard to figure out that Steve is talking his own book here. If he didnt say something negative about IBM after his clients (smart or not, but who pay him well for entering an order with all the skill of a 5th grader) are selling long or selling short IBM, what do you think the likelyhood of him getting another order from them today, or this week, is? Correct, the answer is ZERO.)
Another scenario...
Melissa Lee; "And can you give us your opinion about PCX Steve - BUY SELL or HOLD?"
Steves response; This stock has a large short interest and has been a big momentum play recently Melissa. It looks like the stock can move higher in the short run."
DO YOU GET IT NOW?
Listen, its not a matter of whether Steve had clients in the stock today, yesterday, last week, or never. Its a matter of what if he did. Does he skew his answer so as not to throw his clients under the bus (something no one other than his clients would know) or does he say something negative about a stock that a client recently purchase, or something positive about a stock that a client recently sold short? If so he risks his very own business.
It is irresponsible to put Steve in this position and it is even more irresponsible for a NYSE floor broker to be giving his (supposedly, hopefully, who really knows if it is) unbiased opinion to the public.
This is just another example of CNBC and how they are part of the problem and not of the cure.
HAPPY TRADING!
If you said a HUGE conflict then you are correct sir - and here is your prize behind curtain number 3...a (supposedly unbiased) stock pick, just for you, with a side order of HUGE CONFLICT OF INTEREST! Good luck on that one.
Maybe its just us. But it shouldnt be - we should ALL care. Apparently CNBC is either too clueless or too arrogant to care.
OK here is a fictious scenario to get our point across...
Melissa Lee asks the question to Steve Grasso; "So Steve, what do you think of IBM here?"
Steves response; "Well Melissa I think its running into some resistance and I am seeing smart hedge funds exiting the name, so we should see some constructive pullback"
(It is not hard to figure out that Steve is talking his own book here. If he didnt say something negative about IBM after his clients (smart or not, but who pay him well for entering an order with all the skill of a 5th grader) are selling long or selling short IBM, what do you think the likelyhood of him getting another order from them today, or this week, is? Correct, the answer is ZERO.)
Another scenario...
Melissa Lee; "And can you give us your opinion about PCX Steve - BUY SELL or HOLD?"
Steves response; This stock has a large short interest and has been a big momentum play recently Melissa. It looks like the stock can move higher in the short run."
DO YOU GET IT NOW?
Listen, its not a matter of whether Steve had clients in the stock today, yesterday, last week, or never. Its a matter of what if he did. Does he skew his answer so as not to throw his clients under the bus (something no one other than his clients would know) or does he say something negative about a stock that a client recently purchase, or something positive about a stock that a client recently sold short? If so he risks his very own business.
It is irresponsible to put Steve in this position and it is even more irresponsible for a NYSE floor broker to be giving his (supposedly, hopefully, who really knows if it is) unbiased opinion to the public.
This is just another example of CNBC and how they are part of the problem and not of the cure.
HAPPY TRADING!
Thursday, July 16, 2009
SPX +3% catches many off guard
Lets not sugar coat this...yesterday was a rally that caught many many people off guard. Whether you believe that or not, or whether you believe it was just a short covering rally or not, is not relevant.
What is relevant is that you get on the right side of the tracks when the train is coming and you jump on. There are many ways to make (and lose) money. Yesterdays "MO" was buy high and sell higher-and this is the only way you couldve made any significant money yesterday.
Today is another day. But let us leave you with this little blurb from Dennis Gartmans morning letter...
Lord Keynes said, “When the facts
change, we change; what then do you do, Sir?” To us,
the one great fact is price, and when the price is
moving against us it is we who are wrong, not the
market. It is our duty to “get right” with the market…
and so we did, surviving for yet another day. There is a
great lesson here for those willing to learn it and that is
that there is nothing wrong with being wrong, but there
is much wrong with staying wrong, and there is even
more wrong with getting “wrong-er.” Class is now
dismissed!
We may not agree with all that you say Dennis, but this was well said. And many investors/traders should take notice.
HAPPY TRADING!
What is relevant is that you get on the right side of the tracks when the train is coming and you jump on. There are many ways to make (and lose) money. Yesterdays "MO" was buy high and sell higher-and this is the only way you couldve made any significant money yesterday.
Today is another day. But let us leave you with this little blurb from Dennis Gartmans morning letter...
Lord Keynes said, “When the facts
change, we change; what then do you do, Sir?” To us,
the one great fact is price, and when the price is
moving against us it is we who are wrong, not the
market. It is our duty to “get right” with the market…
and so we did, surviving for yet another day. There is a
great lesson here for those willing to learn it and that is
that there is nothing wrong with being wrong, but there
is much wrong with staying wrong, and there is even
more wrong with getting “wrong-er.” Class is now
dismissed!
We may not agree with all that you say Dennis, but this was well said. And many investors/traders should take notice.
HAPPY TRADING!
Monday, July 13, 2009
The SPX on the slippery slope...
Down 4 weeks in a row isnt bad...yet. Actually we have been down eight separate times for 3 or more consecutive weeks since the beginning of 2007 to varying degrees of pain. But it is usually when people least expect it that the market takes a tumble. Take this piece of information from elliottwave.com...
Is the most powerful of all waves right around the corner?
The short answer is "YES."
Let's us just say, if wave 3 was a superhero, he'd probably be The Flash (though he could be The Hulk).
Like The Flash, there's no mistaking wave 3's characteristics:
* It gets to where it's going in a hurry.
* It usually catches everyone by surprise, and
* You'll know it when you see it.
Well, there you have it. A mutant superhero named Flash/Hulk is going to put the kabash on the market very soon.
Personally we think they are right...we just wish they would have left out the superhero analogy.
HAPPY TRADING!
Is the most powerful of all waves right around the corner?
The short answer is "YES."
Let's us just say, if wave 3 was a superhero, he'd probably be The Flash (though he could be The Hulk).
Like The Flash, there's no mistaking wave 3's characteristics:
* It gets to where it's going in a hurry.
* It usually catches everyone by surprise, and
* You'll know it when you see it.
Well, there you have it. A mutant superhero named Flash/Hulk is going to put the kabash on the market very soon.
Personally we think they are right...we just wish they would have left out the superhero analogy.
HAPPY TRADING!
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Morgan Stanley did WHAT?
Heres a story for you that may have you thinking Deja Vu all over again...
Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale...(read full story here).
Isnt this pretty much the same crap that got us in trouble in the first place? How is this stuff legal anyway - repackaging downgraded CDO's into AAA rated instruments???
This may be the start of something bigger that will eventually bite us all in the ass or it may just be something that turns out to be innocuous. Either way it sounds fishy.
HAPPY TRADING!
Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale...(read full story here).
Isnt this pretty much the same crap that got us in trouble in the first place? How is this stuff legal anyway - repackaging downgraded CDO's into AAA rated instruments???
This may be the start of something bigger that will eventually bite us all in the ass or it may just be something that turns out to be innocuous. Either way it sounds fishy.
HAPPY TRADING!
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
880 SPX remains the key
The 880 level in the SPX is on everyones radar...hey even the fundamental guys are looking at it out of the corner of their eyes (so no one thinks they care). And it should be on everyones radar because it is that technically important.
If you have been a regular reader of this Technical Insights Blog then you know how often we have mentioned SPX 880, and how technicals are all the rage these days from mindless TV reporters and their ilk. We have been wrong before (lets just say our latest mishap was with Doug Kass and a 50 point drop in the S&P) but this level is so significant that we are prepared for a meaningful sell off once 880 is broken. Not just broken any old way...but broken on higher than average volume. Or a few consecutive days of closes below even if it were to occur on below average volume.
Todays volume was lackluster which means there wasnt any conviction in the selling. Almost seems like there was more disinterest in buying than there was a propensity to sell. But things change quickly, regardless of how much cash any mutual funds may be sitting on.
Besides the SPX, individual stock charts are breaking down also. GE was a smart short once it broke its 100 day moving average 2 days ago at $11.50...V looks like a good short now that it has broken strong support at $60...JCP looks like the weakest retailer as it is breaking below its recent triangle...and the list goes on.
There are a few stocks that look to be coming into support areas and will probably get nice bounces soon (of the many AMZN and NBL come to mind first) but the market needs to stabilize before safely playing bounces can take place.
Bottom line: this is a time for caution. For the past 4 trading sessions selling early strength and covering late day weakness has been a rewarding strategy. So for those of you who like to play from the short side this is your chance. Otherwise cash is a wise place to be as the clarity around the next leg takes shape.
HAPPY TRADING!
If you have been a regular reader of this Technical Insights Blog then you know how often we have mentioned SPX 880, and how technicals are all the rage these days from mindless TV reporters and their ilk. We have been wrong before (lets just say our latest mishap was with Doug Kass and a 50 point drop in the S&P) but this level is so significant that we are prepared for a meaningful sell off once 880 is broken. Not just broken any old way...but broken on higher than average volume. Or a few consecutive days of closes below even if it were to occur on below average volume.
Todays volume was lackluster which means there wasnt any conviction in the selling. Almost seems like there was more disinterest in buying than there was a propensity to sell. But things change quickly, regardless of how much cash any mutual funds may be sitting on.
Besides the SPX, individual stock charts are breaking down also. GE was a smart short once it broke its 100 day moving average 2 days ago at $11.50...V looks like a good short now that it has broken strong support at $60...JCP looks like the weakest retailer as it is breaking below its recent triangle...and the list goes on.
There are a few stocks that look to be coming into support areas and will probably get nice bounces soon (of the many AMZN and NBL come to mind first) but the market needs to stabilize before safely playing bounces can take place.
Bottom line: this is a time for caution. For the past 4 trading sessions selling early strength and covering late day weakness has been a rewarding strategy. So for those of you who like to play from the short side this is your chance. Otherwise cash is a wise place to be as the clarity around the next leg takes shape.
HAPPY TRADING!
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
The brutality of trading in a shortened holiday week
As we all know by now (YAWNNNN) this week is a sleeper when it comes to trading. There is some news out here and there, along with a few significant moves (FSLR is taking it on the chin and SKS is breaking out like a teenager) but overall the action is as thin as a wrist on Gay Parade day. And if there is one thing you learn as a seasoned trader is that trying to trade the utter crap that goes on in a week like this just gets you in trouble. Basically its like shitting in bed and trying to kick it out...it just doesnt work. So our advice is dont do it.
Instead head to the local coffee shop, turn on your laptop and start perusing your favorite blogs (like adams options, trader feed, zero hedge, and hopefully this one) and catch up on what is really going on around the street. Whatever you do, dont watch the nonsense on CNBC...we repeat DO NOT watch. This will only clutter your mind and fill it with jibberish which will only get in the way of you making your own, well thought out decisions about where to invest (think cash!).
Have a great holiday weekend.
HAPPY TRADING!
Instead head to the local coffee shop, turn on your laptop and start perusing your favorite blogs (like adams options, trader feed, zero hedge, and hopefully this one) and catch up on what is really going on around the street. Whatever you do, dont watch the nonsense on CNBC...we repeat DO NOT watch. This will only clutter your mind and fill it with jibberish which will only get in the way of you making your own, well thought out decisions about where to invest (think cash!).
Have a great holiday weekend.
HAPPY TRADING!
Friday, June 26, 2009
SBUX anyone?
Today is one of those sleepy-lazy days for the stock market...its a Friday during the summer, Russell Rebalancing day, and one week before the long 4th of July weekend. So whats a trader to do? Nothing because trading on these directionless days usually get you in trouble.
The best thing any trader can do today is turn off your monitor and take a short walk to the nearest Starbux for a Grande Lazy Slothaccino. Then sit back and take a nice long nap.
And if youre looking for more ingenious uses for Starbux coffee visit our friends over at the dopey cowboy...helps pass the day.
HAPPY TRADING!
The best thing any trader can do today is turn off your monitor and take a short walk to the nearest Starbux for a Grande Lazy Slothaccino. Then sit back and take a nice long nap.
And if youre looking for more ingenious uses for Starbux coffee visit our friends over at the dopey cowboy...helps pass the day.
HAPPY TRADING!
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Dick Bove never ceases to amaze...
Dick Bove never ceases to amaze us. Barron's Online did an interview with him and here is an excerpt: "Barrons.com: If you buy Citigroup (C) stock now, is it like buying Citi in the early '90s, when the business seemed doomed and the stock price was down around $2 a share? Bove: I think so -- as long as Citigroup is going to do well in the next few quarters.
Excuse us for being obvious here but isnt this just common sense? Dont you want to buy a stock if you think its future prospects look good??? Remember folks, this is a seasoned and very senior analyst saying these words. If someone junior who wasnt so well known made these comments they would be laughted at.
What are we talking about? We are laughing!
Thanks for your insight Dick.
HAPPY TRADING!
Excuse us for being obvious here but isnt this just common sense? Dont you want to buy a stock if you think its future prospects look good??? Remember folks, this is a seasoned and very senior analyst saying these words. If someone junior who wasnt so well known made these comments they would be laughted at.
What are we talking about? We are laughing!
Thanks for your insight Dick.
HAPPY TRADING!
Monday, June 22, 2009
Light volume expiry...so whats next?
Just when you think youve figured out the stock market it teaches you (AGAIN) that youre not as smart as you think you are. Yes, we are referring to ourselves here at this Technical Insights Blog. We had it all figured out...and then we didnt.
Having said that, we have not yet thrown in the towel on another rally attempt in the very near future.
This is what we are thinking...a very sharp rally into month end led by portfolio managers wanting to juice the returns of the already best quarter they have had in a LONG time.
Then, some follow through buying in the first week of the new quarter as funds try to get all their new inflows invested to keep up with performance of the S&P so they feel they will not be "chasing performance" for another quarter.
Then, once all the new money is invested and we are somewhere between SPX 950 - 1000 we will get another pause in the market. But this pause will not be met with another round of buying. Instead the market will slowly drift lower and eventually. as we approach the cautious month of September and the spooky month of October, the selloff will start to accelerate.
Anyway, between now and then (whenever "then" is) there will be plenty of long and short trading opportunities (longs will be opportunistic in nature and taking advantage of short term oversold conditions while shorts will be more technical in nature as stocks rebound into resistance areas or trend lines).
And for the Doug Kass issue - we have seen a pull back as he originally suspected (although saying he was not short still makes no sense) but not the 50 points he predicted...so this dispute isnt over just yet.
HAPPY TRADING!
Having said that, we have not yet thrown in the towel on another rally attempt in the very near future.
This is what we are thinking...a very sharp rally into month end led by portfolio managers wanting to juice the returns of the already best quarter they have had in a LONG time.
Then, some follow through buying in the first week of the new quarter as funds try to get all their new inflows invested to keep up with performance of the S&P so they feel they will not be "chasing performance" for another quarter.
Then, once all the new money is invested and we are somewhere between SPX 950 - 1000 we will get another pause in the market. But this pause will not be met with another round of buying. Instead the market will slowly drift lower and eventually. as we approach the cautious month of September and the spooky month of October, the selloff will start to accelerate.
Anyway, between now and then (whenever "then" is) there will be plenty of long and short trading opportunities (longs will be opportunistic in nature and taking advantage of short term oversold conditions while shorts will be more technical in nature as stocks rebound into resistance areas or trend lines).
And for the Doug Kass issue - we have seen a pull back as he originally suspected (although saying he was not short still makes no sense) but not the 50 points he predicted...so this dispute isnt over just yet.
HAPPY TRADING!
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